Archive
Dated 2017, written in 2026. Reconstructed from notes and posts from that period rather than published at the time. The thinking is what I had then; the sentences are new.
What a million a month looks like
I consult on about $1M a month in ad spend. The surprising part isn't the scale. It's how few of the decisions are about advertising.
I'm consulting as a senior media buyer on an account running around a million dollars a month. I've been buying traffic since 2009 and this is a different activity than what I was doing with my own money, in ways I'd have gotten wrong if you'd asked me to predict them.
What actually changes
The account stabilizes and you have to stop touching it. At small spend, every day is noise and you're constantly intervening. At this volume the numbers are real almost immediately, which means the correct action is usually nothing. The hardest skill to develop was sitting still. Every instinct I'd built over eight years was about reacting, and most of my early mistakes here were interventions that would have been correct at a hundredth of the budget.
Mistakes have no lag. There's no window where you notice a misconfiguration before it costs anything. It's spending at full rate from the first minute. The whole discipline shifts toward checks before launch rather than monitoring after, which sounds obvious and is a genuinely different daily practice.
Creative volume becomes the constraint. This is the one nobody told me. At scale you are not primarily optimizing targeting or bids — the platform does most of that better than you can. You are feeding it. Fatigue is the actual enemy, and the binding constraint on the entire account is how fast the organization can produce new material worth testing. That's a production problem and an org problem. It is not a media buying problem, and I spent the first stretch trying to solve it with media buying levers.
You become an operations person. Attribution disagreements, inventory, what the site can absorb, what happens to fulfillment if a campaign works. The interesting decisions live at the seams between advertising and everything else.
The thing I keep coming back to
At a million a month, the ad account is downstream of the business. Almost every lever that meaningfully moves the number is somewhere else.
Product mix moves it more than targeting. Price moves it more than bid strategy. How fast the creative team ships moves it more than anything I do in the platform. Site speed and checkout friction move it more than my structure. I can be excellent at my actual job and shift the outcome by some percentage. The merchandising decision made in a different room shifts it by a multiple.
This is not a complaint about the role. It's the clearest confirmation I've gotten of something I half-believed from the marketing classes I sat through and mostly dismissed: promotion is one input among several, and when it's the only one you control, you'll over-attribute results to it because that's the part you can see.
Where this leaves me
The useful realization is about leverage rather than skill.
Being an excellent media buyer is a real skill and it's capped, because the ceiling on your contribution is set by decisions made upstream of you. The people with the most leverage over that million dollars are the ones deciding what to sell and what to charge, and they're often less sophisticated about acquisition than the person spending the money.
That gap — sophisticated spending sitting downstream of unsophisticated decisions — is the most interesting thing I've seen this year. I don't yet know what to build into it. But it's the first time in a while I've looked at a market and thought there's obviously something missing here, and the last time I had that feeling I started a company.
End of file
If this was useful or you think I'm wrong about it, tell me: @dennishegstad.
I take on two ecommerce companies at a time as a fractional CMO — rates and fit →